统计预测、经验预测、物理预测——近期国际地震预测预报研究的启示     

吴忠良  蒋长胜 《中国地震》2007,23(3):211-224

从"统计预测"、"经验预测"、"物理预测"的角度讨论了世纪之交地震预测预报研究的国际进展。"统计预测"包括地震预测预报方法的统计检验、"统计地震学",以及统计物理在地震预测预报中的应用;"经验预测"包括搜索可能的前兆异常的尝试、建立将可能的前兆异常现象与地震孕育过程联系起来的简单模型、发现对地震预测预报研究具有重要意义的新现象,以及地球介质变化的动态监测试验;"物理预测"包括地震孕育和发生的物理模型、地震断层带性质的观测和实验研究,以及对震源的直接探测和钻探。讨论了"统计预测"、"经验预测"、"物理预测"之间的关系,对"把经验预测或统计预测变成物理预测"的发展战略提出质疑。  相似文献   

Pn arrivals and lateral variations of Moho geometry beneath the Kaapvaal craton     

M. T. O. G. Kwadiba  C. Wright  E. M. Kgaswane  R. E. Simon  T. K. Nguuri   《Lithos》2003,71(2-4):393-411

Pn arrivals from mining-induced earthquakes on the edge of the Witwatersrand basin show that the P wavespeeds in the uppermost mantle are almost constant throughout most of the Kaapvaal craton. The presence of only small wavespeed variations allows the use of a simple method of estimating crustal thicknesses below the stations of the Kaapvaal broad-band network using Pn times that has been compared with results from receiver functions. One thousand three hundred thirty-seven Pn arrivals were used to derive crustal thicknesses at 46 stations on the Kaapvaal craton. The average crustal thicknesses for 19 centrally located stations on each of the northern and southern regions of the craton that yielded well-constrained thicknesses were 50.52±0.88 km and 38.07±0.85 km, respectively. In contrast, the corresponding average thicknesses determined from receiver functions were 43.58±0.57 km and 37.58±0.70 km, respectively. The systematically lower values for receiver functions in the northern part of the Kaapvaal craton that was affected by the Bushveld magmatism at 2.05 Ga, suggest that the receiver functions do not enable the petrological crust mantle boundary to be reliably resolved due to variations in composition and metamorphic grade in a mafic lower crust. The Pn times also suggest pervasive azimuthal anisotropy with maximum wavespeeds of about 8.40 km/s at azimuths of about 15° and 217° in the northern and southern regions of the craton, respectively, and minimum wavespeeds of about 8.25 km/s.  相似文献   

Flexure of the Indian plate and intraplate earthquakes   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Roger Bilham  Rebecca Bendick  Kali Wallace 《Journal of Earth System Science》2003,112(3):315-329

The flexural bulge in central India resulting from India's collision with Tibet has a wavelength of approximately 670 km. It is manifest topographically and in the free-air gravity anomaly and the geoid. Calculations of the stress distribution within a flexed Indian plate reveal spatial variations throughout the depth of the plate and also a function of distance from the Himalaya. The wavelength (and therefore local gradient) of stress variation is a function of the effective elastic thickness of the plate, estimates of which have been proposed to lie in the range 40–120 km. The imposition of this stress field on the northward moving Indian plate appears fundamental to explaining the current distribution of intraplate earthquakes and their mechanisms. The current study highlights an outer trough south of the flexural bulge in central India where surface stresses are double the contiguous compressional stresses to the north and south. The Bhuj, Latur and Koyna earthquakes and numerous other recent reverse faulting events occurred in this compressional setting. The N/S spatial gradient of stress exceeds 2 bars/km near the flexural bulge. The overall flexural stress distribution provides a physical basis for earthquake hazard mapping and suggests that areas of central India where no historic earthquakes are recorded may yet be the locus of future damaging events.  相似文献   

Surface effects of triggered fault slip on Reykjanes Peninsula, SW Iceland     

Amy E. Clifton  Carolina Pagli  Jna Finndís Jnsdttir  Kristjana Eythorsdttir  Kristin Vogfjr 《Tectonophysics》2003,369(3-4):145-154

Three large earthquakes (M_w>4.5) were triggered within 5 min, 85 km west of a M_w 6.5 earthquake in the South Iceland Seismic Zone (SISZ). We report on surface effects of these triggered earthquakes, which include fresh rupture, widespread rockfall, disrupted rockslides and block slides. Field data confirm that the earthquakes occurred along N-striking right-lateral strike-slip faults. Field data also support the conclusion from modeling of InSAR data that deformation from the second triggered event was more significant than for the other two. A major hydrological effect was the draining of water through an open fissure on a lake bed, lowering the lake level by greater than 4 m. Field relationships suggest that a component of aseismic slip could have been facilitated by water draining into the fault zone.  相似文献   

Source parameters of large historical (1917–1961) earthquakes, North Island, New Zealand     

Diane I. Doser  Terry H. Webb 《Geophysical Journal International》2003,152(3):795-832

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Three-dimensional elastic earthquake modelling based on integrated seismological and InSAR data: the M_w= 7.2 Nuweiba earthquake, gulf of Elat/Aqaba 1995 November     

G. Shamir  G. Baer  A. Hofstetter 《Geophysical Journal International》2003,154(3):731-744

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Slip-weakening distance in dynamic rupture of in-slab normal-faulting earthquakes   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Takeshi Mikumo  Yuji Yagi 《Geophysical Journal International》2003,155(2):443-455

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河南及邻区地震前中小地震活跃-平静的定量指标研究     

王会义 《华北地震科学》2003,21(2):43-48

以累计频度定量计算方法，分区讨论了河南及邻区1970年以来地震活动非线性度ZL值的时间进程曲线，系统计算了M≥5．0级地震前的ZL值，结果表明：开始出现活跃(平静)异常的时间集中在地震前1—2年，结束异常的时间在地震前一年内，集中于0—4个月。同时提出了异常的定量指标以及发震类型。  相似文献   

安宁河-则木河-小江带强震趋势的预测依据和应用问题     

程万正 《四川地震》2003,(2):12-16

分析了近年沿安宁河一则木河一小江断裂带和大凉山断裂带出现的突出地震活动性、跨断层地壳形变和宏、微观异常现象。根据这些异常依据分析了强震趋势及预测应用问题，并进行了有益的思考。  相似文献   

钢结构住宅体系墙板及墙板节点足尺模型振动台试验研究   总被引：5，自引：3，他引：5  

李国强  赵欣  孙飞飞  高文利  杨尊权  靳世文 《地震工程与工程振动》2003,23(1):64-70

本文对山东安尔发建筑科技有限公司开发的钢结构住宅体系的墙板及墙板节点足尺模型进行了模拟地震振动台试验研究，分析了该体系的自振特性、地震反应特征和破坏现象，特别对外墙板及内墙的节点的抗震性能进行了深入研究，得出了有益的结论，为钢结构住宅体系的进一步推广提供了试验依据。  相似文献